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Bowling Green

Falcons · Mid-American

Head coach Eddie George Year 1 with Bowling Green

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
4.5
Expected wins
4-6
Proj record
2 to 7
Win range (90%)
#114 (95–130)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Tarleton State
    Home · Sep 5
  • at Miami (OH)
    Away · Oct 3
  • vs Sacramento State
    Home · Oct 10
  • at Buffalo
    Away · Oct 24
  • vs Kent State
    Home · Nov 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

51 PCI
  • Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
  • Offensive line 60% (9/15 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 55% (18/33 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 48% (15/31 players)
  • Secondary 41% (7/17 players)
  • Special teams 88% (7/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Drew Pyne)

GIE projects a 4.3 rating drop and a 17.0pp shift in playoff probability if Bowling Green loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=6 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 34.7% 35th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.3% 28th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 31.0% 25th — below avg
  • Late & close 4.0 yds/play 22th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.