Falcons · Mid-American
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
17 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 4.3 rating drop and a 17.0pp shift in playoff probability if Bowling Green loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=6 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Bowling Green sits at 0–1 after falling to Tarleton State 20–13 in Week 1, and the rating hasn't budged since. GIE has them at 118th overall with an expected-wins projection of 3.9, reflecting a roster unlikely to string together many…
Bowling Green sits at 4–8 after a dominant road win at Massachusetts in Week 14, routing the Minutemen 45–14 to snap a rough stretch. That victory lifted the Falcons' rating to –12.6, good for 113th nationally—a meaningful statement in a…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
