2026 Week 12 · Conference game
Bowling Green at Toledo
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:30 AM UTC
Glass Bowl
Bowling Green
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -12.6
- National rank
- 113
- Proj. wins
- 4.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 6.0
- National rank
- 48
- Proj. wins
- 8.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Bowling Green
8%
Toledo
92%
Toledo 90% CI: 89% – 95% Δ rating 18.6
Toledo is the model's favorite at 92%. Bowling Green has a 8% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Toledo — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Bowling Green offense
23 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Toledo offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Glass Bowl
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No