2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Yager Stadium
Bowling Green
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-3
- Rating
- -22.0
- National rank
- 134
- Proj. wins
- 3.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Miami (OH)
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -6.0
- National rank
- 92
- Proj. wins
- 5.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Bowling Green
10%
Miami (OH)
90%
Miami (OH) 90% CI: 86% – 93% Δ rating 16.0
Miami (OH) is the model's favorite at 90%. Bowling Green has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.3 rating points baked in for Miami (OH) — venue-specific learned value (n=43 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Bowling Green offense
33 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Miami (OH) offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Heavy rain showers
Temperature
73°F
Precipitation
39%
Wind
12 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Yager Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No