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2026 Week 5 · Conference game

Bowling Green at Miami (OH)

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC

Yager Stadium

Bowling Green
Mid-American
Record
0-3
Rating
-22.0
National rank
134
Proj. wins
3.0
Playoff prob.
0%
Miami (OH)
Mid-American
Record
1-2
Rating
-6.0
National rank
92
Proj. wins
5.4
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Bowling Green
10%
Miami (OH)
90%
Miami (OH) 90% CI: 86% – 93% Δ rating 16.0

Miami (OH) is the model's favorite at 90%. Bowling Green has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.3 rating points baked in for Miami (OH) — venue-specific learned value (n=43 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Bowling Green offense
33 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Miami (OH) offense
35 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Conditions
Heavy rain showers
Temperature
73°F
Precipitation
39%
Wind
12 mph

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Venue
Yager Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
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