Conference game
Ball State at Bowling Green
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 12:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ball State Winner | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 32 |
 Bowling Green | 0 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 31 |
GIE pre-game call: Ball State at 55%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Ball State 55% Favorite
Bowling Green 45% Underdog
Ball State is the model's favorite at 55%. Bowling Green has a 45% path. Home-field adjustment of +-1.7 rating points baked in for Bowling Green — venue-specific learned value (n=43 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Bowling Green recap Bowling Green: 2026 Week 7 recap Bowling Green sits at 1–4 after a Week 5 road win over Miami (OH), 24–20, but the rating holds steady at –26.4, suggesting the victory didn't shift the broader assessment. The Falcons' situational profile is the real story: a red-zone TD…
- Ball State recap Ball State: 2026 Week 7 recap Ball State sits at 1–4 after dropping last week's home contest to Toledo 39–24, and GIE's model shows no movement: the Cardinals remain at a –25 rating and ranked 135th. The core issue isn't variance—it's execution across the board. A…