2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Ball State at Bowling Green
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -24.3
- National rank
- 136
- Proj. wins
- 4.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Bowling Green
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-3
- Rating
- -22.0
- National rank
- 134
- Proj. wins
- 3.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ball State
51%
Bowling Green
49%
Bowling Green 90% CI: 40% – 59% Δ rating 2.3
Ball State is the model's favorite at 51%. Bowling Green has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +-2.5 rating points baked in for Bowling Green — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
34 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Bowling Green offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Doyt L. Perry Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No