2026 Week 4
South Florida at Bowling Green
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 11.6
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 8.9
- Playoff prob.
- 11%
Bowling Green
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -12.6
- National rank
- 113
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
South Florida
97%
Bowling Green
3%
Bowling Green 90% CI: 2% – 5% Δ rating 24.2
South Florida is the model's favorite at 97%. Bowling Green has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +-2.5 rating points baked in for Bowling Green — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Florida offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Bowling Green offense
33 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Doyt L. Perry Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No