2026 Week 4
South Florida at Bowling Green
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 1.9
- National rank
- 66
- Proj. wins
- 9.5
- Playoff prob.
- 31%
Bowling Green
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-3
- Rating
- -22.0
- National rank
- 134
- Proj. wins
- 3.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
South Florida
96%
Bowling Green
4%
Bowling Green 90% CI: 2% – 5% Δ rating 23.9
South Florida is the model's favorite at 96%. Bowling Green has a 4% path. Home-field adjustment of +-2.5 rating points baked in for Bowling Green — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Florida offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Bowling Green offense
33 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
57°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Doyt L. Perry Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No