South Florida
Bulls · American Athletic
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
10%
Baseline projection.
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at East CarolinaAway · Nov 7 -
vs TulaneHome · Nov 27 -
at UTSAAway · Oct 8 -
vs MemphisHome · Nov 13 -
at ArmyAway · Sep 12
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 0% (0/5 )
- Offensive line 47% (9/19 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 28% (14/34 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 14% (14/29 )
- Secondary 16% (10/24 )
- Special teams 36% (4/7 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
42 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Ayden Jackson DB ← Georgia Southern 149 impact
- Kenny Odom WR ← UTEP 117 impact
- D.J. Crowther RB ← Dartmouth 73 impact
- Shamar Meikle LB ← Oregon State 70 impact
- MarShon Oxley LB ← West Virginia 57 impact
- Za'Quan Bryan CB ← Minnesota 54 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -5.7 rating drop and a -23.0pp shift in playoff probability if South Florida loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 45.2% 94th — elite
- Red-zone TD rate 19.4% 86th — strong
- 4th-down aggression 38.9% 65th — average
- Late & close 6.3 yds/play 78th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5
vsFlorida InternationalConference USA96%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12
atArmyAmerican Athletic74%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19vsDelaware State—
- Wk 4Sep 26
atBowling GreenMid-American94%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
vsTempleAmerican Athletic92%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 8
atUTSAAmerican Athletic66%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsKent StateMid-American98%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsUABAmerican Athletic98%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atEast CarolinaAmerican Athletic53%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 13
vsMemphisAmerican Athletic69%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atFlorida AtlanticAmerican Athletic90%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 27
vsTulaneAmerican Athletic73%Win prob
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More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.