2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Temple at South Florida
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Raymond James Stadium
Temple
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -6.5
- National rank
- 95
- Proj. wins
- 5.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 1.9
- National rank
- 66
- Proj. wins
- 9.5
- Playoff prob.
- 31%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Temple
22%
South Florida
78%
South Florida 90% CI: 71% – 84% Δ rating 8.4
South Florida is the model's favorite at 78%. Temple has a 22% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.8 rating points baked in for South Florida — venue-specific night-game value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Temple offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
South Florida offense
44 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Partly cloudy
Temperature
81°F
Precipitation
21%
Wind
9 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Raymond James Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No