2026 Week 11 · Conference game
Memphis at South Florida
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Raymond James Stadium
Memphis
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 7.6
- National rank
- 39
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 11.6
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 8.9
- Playoff prob.
- 11%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Memphis
33%
South Florida
67%
South Florida 90% CI: 58% – 75% Δ rating 4.0
South Florida is the model's favorite at 67%. Memphis has a 33% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.7 rating points baked in for South Florida — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Memphis offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
South Florida offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
- Venue
- Raymond James Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No