2026 Week 6 · Conference game
South Florida at UTSA
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Alamodome
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 11.6
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 8.9
- Playoff prob.
- 11%
UTSA
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 3.7
- National rank
- 62
- Proj. wins
- 6.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
South Florida
61%
UTSA
39%
UTSA 90% CI: 31% – 48% Δ rating 7.9
South Florida is the model's favorite at 61%. UTSA has a 39% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.4 rating points baked in for UTSA — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Florida offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UTSA offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Alamodome
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No