2026 Week 6 · Conference game
South Florida at UTSA
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Alamodome
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 1.9
- National rank
- 66
- Proj. wins
- 9.5
- Playoff prob.
- 31%
UTSA
American Athletic
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -1.4
- National rank
- 74
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
South Florida
49%
UTSA
51%
UTSA 90% CI: 42% – 60% Δ rating 3.3
UTSA is the model's favorite at 51%. South Florida has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.6 rating points baked in for UTSA — venue-specific night-game value (n=52 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Florida offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UTSA offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
63°F
Precipitation
7%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Alamodome
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No