2026 Week 10 · Conference game
South Florida at East Carolina
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:30 AM UTC
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 1.9
- National rank
- 66
- Proj. wins
- 9.5
- Playoff prob.
- 31%
East Carolina
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -5.6
- National rank
- 88
- Proj. wins
- 5.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
South Florida
64%
East Carolina
36%
East Carolina 90% CI: 28% – 45% Δ rating 7.5
South Florida is the model's favorite at 64%. East Carolina has a 36% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for East Carolina — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Florida offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
East Carolina offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No