2026 Week 10 · Conference game
South Florida at East Carolina
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 11.6
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 8.9
- Playoff prob.
- 11%
East Carolina
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 8.0
- National rank
- 38
- Proj. wins
- 8.0
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
South Florida
52%
East Carolina
48%
East Carolina 90% CI: 39% – 57% Δ rating 3.6
South Florida is the model's favorite at 52%. East Carolina has a 48% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for East Carolina — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Florida offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
East Carolina offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
- Venue
- Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No