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2026 Week 2 · Conference game

South Florida at Army

Friday, September 11, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Michie Stadium

South Florida
American Athletic
Record
0-0
Rating
11.6
National rank
29
Proj. wins
8.9
Playoff prob.
11%
Army
American Athletic
Record
0-0
Rating
0.8
National rank
74
Proj. wins
5.8
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

South Florida
77%
Army
23%
Army 90% CI: 17% – 30% Δ rating 10.8

South Florida is the model's favorite at 77%. Army has a 23% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.0 rating points baked in for Army — venue-specific learned value (n=43 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

South Florida offense
36 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Army offense
25 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, September 11, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Michie Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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