2026 Week 1
Florida International at South Florida
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Raymond James Stadium
Florida International
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -10.5
- National rank
- 107
- Proj. wins
- 1.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 11.6
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 8.9
- Playoff prob.
- 11%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Florida International
5%
South Florida
95%
South Florida 90% CI: 93% – 97% Δ rating 22.1
South Florida is the model's favorite at 95%. Florida International has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.7 rating points baked in for South Florida — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida International offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
South Florida offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Raymond James Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No