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2026 Week 12 · Conference game

South Florida at Florida Atlantic

Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST

FAU Stadium

South Florida
American Athletic
Record
0-0
Rating
11.6
National rank
29
Proj. wins
8.9
Playoff prob.
11%
Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
Record
0-0
Rating
-8.7
National rank
98
Proj. wins
4.5
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

South Florida
90%
Florida Atlantic
10%
Florida Atlantic 90% CI: 7% – 14% Δ rating 20.3

South Florida is the model's favorite at 90%. Florida Atlantic has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Florida Atlantic — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

South Florida offense
42 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Florida Atlantic offense
40 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Venue
FAU Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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