Florida Atlantic

Owls · American Athletic

GIE rank: #47; of 138 FBS
Rating: 1615; 2026 Week 12
Record: 6-3; 2026 season
Proj record: 8-4; 12-game season

Head coach Zach Kittley Year 2 with Florida Atlantic

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W12 · 10,000 sims

Expected wins: 7.6; 1.6 more wins in 3 left
Win range (90%): 6 to 9; Range 6 to 9, currently 7.5685 012
Final rank (90%): #49 (35–64); Range 35 to 64, currently 49 1138
Make playoff: 0%; 0%
Win conference: 1%; 1%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Florida Atlantic's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week	Opponent	Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5	at Florida SEC	Loss, 21-66 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12	vs Navy American Athletic	Win, 38-30 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19	vs Florida International Conference USA	Win, 16-10 Final
Wk 4 Sep 27	at UL Monroe Sun Belt	Win, 45-17 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3	vs Texas Southern Non-FBS	Win, 66-10 Final
Wk 6	Bye
Wk 7 Oct 17	at Army American Athletic	Loss, 24-56 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24	vs Rice American Athletic	Win, 51-49 Final
Wk 9 Oct 29	at North Texas American Athletic	Loss, 41-48 Final
Wk 10 Nov 6	vs UTSA American Athletic	Win, 60-29 Final
Wk 11 Nov 14	at Tulsa American Athletic	Win probability: 35%
Wk 12 Nov 21	vs South Florida American Athletic	Win probability: 41%
Wk 13 Nov 27	at East Carolina American Athletic	Win probability: 47%

Latest stories

Recap Nov 9, 2026

Florida Atlantic: 2026 Week 12 recap

Florida Atlantic sits at 6–3 and has climbed to rank 77 after a decisive 60–29 win over UTSA last week, a performance that lifted the team's rating by 2.1 points. The Owls remain in the playoff hunt mathematically, though GIE gives them a…
Analysis Nov 7, 2026

Florida Atlantic rises 99 ELO points this week

A 99-point jump in Elo in a single week is rare enough to demand explanation, and the recent film suggests FAU has earned it through decisive execution rather than a single outlier result.
Analysis Nov 6, 2026

Florida Atlantic rises 99 ELO points this week

Florida Atlantic's rating climbed 99 ELO points this week—the kind of move that demands an explanation beyond a single blowout.

Show 4 more Florida Atlantic stories

Recap Nov 2, 2026

Florida Atlantic: 2026 Week 11 recap

Florida Atlantic sits at 5–3 with a rating of –3.4, ranked 90th by GIE—and that rating hasn't budged since last week despite a 48–41 road loss to North Texas in Week 9. The Owls are aggressive on fourth down (60% of the time) and in…
Recap Oct 5, 2026

Florida Atlantic: 2026 Week 7 recap

Florida Atlantic sits at 4–1 with a rating of –4.2, holding steady after last week's 66–10 demolition of Texas Southern. The Owls haven't budged in GIE's eyes, which is telling: dominance against a FCS opponent doesn't move the needle.…
Recap Sep 7, 2026

Florida Atlantic: 2026 Week 3 recap

Florida Atlantic sits at 0–1 after a brutal 66–21 road loss to Florida in Week 1, and GIE's rating hasn't budged: they remain at –6.1, ranked 91st. The margin reveals a team that couldn't execute when it mattered—their red-zone touchdown…
Recap May 9, 2026

Florida Atlantic: 2025 Week 16 recap

Florida Atlantic sits at 4–8 after a brutal 42–3 home loss to East Carolina in Week 14, a result that underscores just how far the Owls have fallen this season. GIE rates them at –8.7, placing them 98th nationally—a reflection of a roster…

In the news

Show 9 more headlines

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

83 score

Quarterback 100% (5/6)
Offensive line 82% (18/22) players
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 50% (13/25)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 81% (25/30)
Secondary 91% (15/21)
Special teams 111% (5/6)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.5 rating

29 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Florida Atlantic incoming transfers
Player	From	Impact
Jay CrableDB From Ohio	Ohio	172
RJ Garcia IIWR From Bowling Green	Bowling Green	76
AJ JohnsonTE From Villanova	Villanova	45
Jonathan BaxDB From TCU	TCU	42
Brooks JohnsonTE From Coastal Carolina	Coastal Carolina	34
JK JohnsonDB From Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State	24

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 37.5%

54th — average
Red-zone TD rate 10.5%

18th — bottom tier
4th-down aggression 60.2%

98th — elite
Late & close 6.4 yds/play

80th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.