2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Sacramento State at Bowling Green
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Sacramento State
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -20.9
- National rank
- 133
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Bowling Green
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-3
- Rating
- -22.0
- National rank
- 134
- Proj. wins
- 3.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Sacramento State
61%
Bowling Green
39%
Bowling Green 90% CI: 31% – 48% Δ rating 1.1
Sacramento State is the model's favorite at 61%. Bowling Green has a 39% path. Home-field adjustment of +-2.5 rating points baked in for Bowling Green — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Sacramento State offense
31 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Bowling Green offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Partly cloudy
Temperature
43°F
Precipitation
5%
Wind
6 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Doyt L. Perry Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No