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2026 Week 6 · Conference game

Sacramento State at Bowling Green

Friday, October 9, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Doyt L. Perry Stadium

Sacramento State
Mid-American
Record
0-0
Rating
National rank
Proj. wins
8.2
Playoff prob.
0%
Bowling Green
Mid-American
Record
0-0
Rating
-12.6
National rank
113
Proj. wins
4.4
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Sacramento State
50%
Bowling Green
50%
Bowling Green 90% CI: 50% – 50% Δ rating 12.6

Bowling Green is the model's favorite at 50%. Sacramento State has a 50% path. Home-field adjustment of +-2.5 rating points baked in for Bowling Green — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Sacramento State offense
31 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Bowling Green offense
35 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, October 9, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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