2026 Week 3 FINAL
Buffalo at Penn State
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Beaver Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| Penn State | 17 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 55 |
GIE pre-game call: Penn State at 99%. Hit.
Recaps
- Penn State recap
Penn State: 2026 Week 3 recap
Penn State sits at 17th overall with a 1–0 record after dismantling Marshall 45–0 in Week 1, though GIE's rating held flat at 16.2 despite the dominant performance. The shutout speaks to defensive execution, but the red-zone TD rate of…
- Buffalo recap
Buffalo: 2026 Week 3 recap
Buffalo sits at 1–0 after scraping past UAlbany 21–17 in Week 1, but the narrow margin hints at deeper concerns. GIE rates the Bulls at –12.7, ranking them 111th nationally—a rating that hasn't budged week-to-week, suggesting the model…
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -16.1
- National rank
- 120
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 19.1
- National rank
- 12
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 50%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Penn State is the model's favorite at 99%. Buffalo has a 1% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.0 rating points baked in for Penn State — venue-specific learned value (n=65 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Beaver Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No