Buffalo: 2026 Week 3 recap

Buffalo sits at 1–0 after scraping past UAlbany 21–17 in Week 1, but the narrow margin hints at deeper concerns. GIE rates the Bulls at −12.7, ranking them 111th nationally—a rating that hasn't budged week-to-week, suggesting the model sees this as Buffalo's true level. The red zone efficiency tells much of the story: just a 15% touchdown rate in the scoring area reflects an offense that converts opportunities at an alarming rate. With an expected win total of 6.7 and a playoff probability sitting at zero, Buffalo faces an uphill climb. Next up is a road trip to Florida International, a chance to prove last week wasn't just a close escape but the start of something more sustainable.