2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Buffalo at Toledo
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Glass Bowl
Buffalo
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -16.1
- National rank
- 120
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -5.4
- National rank
- 87
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Buffalo
18%
Toledo
82%
Toledo 90% CI: 76% – 87% Δ rating 10.7
Toledo is the model's favorite at 82%. Buffalo has a 18% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Toledo — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Buffalo offense
28 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Toledo offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Partly cloudy
Temperature
46°F
Precipitation
5%
Wind
3 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Glass Bowl
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No