2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Buffalo at Toledo
Friday, October 9, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Glass Bowl
Buffalo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -7.5
- National rank
- 95
- Proj. wins
- 5.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 6.0
- National rank
- 48
- Proj. wins
- 8.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Buffalo
13%
Toledo
87%
Toledo 90% CI: 82% – 90% Δ rating 13.5
Toledo is the model's favorite at 87%. Buffalo has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Toledo — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Buffalo offense
28 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Toledo offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 9, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Glass Bowl
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No