Toledo

Rockets · Mid-American

Head coach Jason Candle

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

8.7

Expected wins

9-3

Proj record

6 to 11

Win range (90%)

#46 (26–72)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

47%

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

at Sacramento State

Away · Nov 4
at Ohio

Away · Nov 27
at Michigan State

Away · Sep 5
vs San Diego State

Home · Sep 26
vs Western Michigan

Home · Oct 24

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

65 PCI

Quarterback 83% (5/6 players)
Offensive line 55% (11/20 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 65% (20/31 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 55% (18/33 players)
Secondary 60% (12/20 players)
Special teams 44% (4/9 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Tucker Gleason)

GIE projects a -4.0 rating drop and a -16.1pp shift in playoff probability if Toledo loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 34.8% 36th — below avg
Red-zone TD rate 20.5% 90th — elite
4th-down aggression 33.3% 34th — below avg
Late & close 2.5 yds/play 14th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Toledo will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.