2026 Week 1 FINAL
Toledo at Michigan State
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Spartan Stadium
20
Toledo
Final
30
Michigan State
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 0 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 |
| Michigan State | 10 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 30 |
GIE pre-game call: Michigan State at 73%. Hit.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -5.4
- National rank
- 87
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Michigan State
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 2.3
- National rank
- 65
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Toledo
27%
Michigan State
73%
Michigan State 90% CI: 65% – 80% Δ rating 7.7
Michigan State is the model's favorite at 73%. Toledo has a 27% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.4 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Spartan Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No