Michigan State: 2026 Week 12 recap

Michigan State sits at 3–6 after a 15–6 road win over Michigan in Week 10, a result that lifted the Spartans' rating to −2.4 and nudged them up one spot in GIE's rankings to 83rd. The upset over their rival marked a rare bright spot; their red-zone efficiency of 15% explains why wins remain scarce despite occasional defensive strength. The model projects 4.3 expected wins for the season, and a playoff berth remains mathematically out of reach. Up next: Washington visits East Lansing this Saturday. The Spartans will need to convert third downs at a better clip than their current 37% rate to keep pace against a ranked opponent.