Washington
Huskies · Big Ten
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
33%
Baseline projection.
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vs IndianaHome · Nov 21 -
at OregonAway · Nov 28 -
at NebraskaAway · Oct 31 -
vs Penn StateHome · Nov 7 -
vs IowaHome · Oct 10
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 97% (3/5 )
- Offensive line 72% (13/18 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 29% (16/28 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 50% (12/29 )
- Secondary 50% (12/19 )
- Special teams 68% (2/6 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
14 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Christian Moss WR ← Kennesaw State 127 impact
- Emmanuel Karnley CB ← Virginia 89 impact
- Darin Conley DL ← Ball State 68 impact
- Jayden Limar RB ← Oregon 47 impact
- Elijah Brown QB ← Stanford 30 impact
- DeSean Watts DL ← Sacramento State 12 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 44.4% 90th — elite
- Red-zone TD rate 20.4% 89th — strong
- 4th-down aggression 36.8% 53th — average
- Late & close 5.1 yds/play 50th — average
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 6
vsWashington StatePac-1289%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12
vsUtah StatePac-1295%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19vsEastern Washington—
- Wk 4Sep 26
vsMinnesotaBig Ten92%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atUSCBig Ten47%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
vsIowaBig Ten54%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
atPurdueBig Ten94%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
atNebraskaBig Ten77%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
vsPenn StateBig Ten59%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
atMichigan StateBig Ten92%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
vsIndianaBig Ten19%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
atOregonBig Ten22%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.