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Washington

Huskies · Big Ten

Head coach Jedd Fisch Year 3 with Washington

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
7.9
Expected wins
8-4
Proj record
5 to 11
Win range (90%)
#16 (6–31)
Final rank (90%)
33%
Make playoff
4%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

33%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Indiana
    Home · Nov 21
  • at Oregon
    Away · Nov 28
  • at Nebraska
    Away · Oct 31
  • vs Penn State
    Home · Nov 7
  • vs Iowa
    Home · Oct 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

65 score
  • Quarterback 97% (3/5 )
  • Offensive line 72% (13/18 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 29% (16/28 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 50% (12/29 )
  • Secondary 50% (12/19 )
  • Special teams 68% (2/6 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

-0.4 rating

14 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Christian Moss WR ← Kennesaw State 127 impact
  • Emmanuel Karnley CB ← Virginia 89 impact
  • Darin Conley DL ← Ball State 68 impact
  • Jayden Limar RB ← Oregon 47 impact
  • Elijah Brown QB ← Stanford 30 impact
  • DeSean Watts DL ← Sacramento State 12 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 44.4% 90th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 20.4% 89th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 36.8% 53th — average
  • Late & close 5.1 yds/play 50th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.