2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Washington at USC
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Washington
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 12.8
- National rank
- 27
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 10%
USC
Big Ten
- Record
- 4-0
- Rating
- 21.6
- National rank
- 8
- Proj. wins
- 8.6
- Playoff prob.
- 43%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Washington
19%
USC
81%
USC 90% CI: 74% – 86% Δ rating 8.8
USC is the model's favorite at 81%. Washington has a 19% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for USC — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Washington offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
USC offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
75°F
Precipitation
1%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No