2026 Week 13 · Conference game
Toledo at Ohio
Friday, November 27, 2026 · 5:00 PM UTC
Peden Stadium
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -5.4
- National rank
- 87
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Ohio
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -12.7
- National rank
- 114
- Proj. wins
- 5.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Toledo
65%
Ohio
35%
Ohio 90% CI: 27% – 44% Δ rating 7.3
Toledo is the model's favorite at 65%. Ohio has a 35% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for Ohio — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Toledo offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Ohio offense
23 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, November 27, 2026 · 5:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Peden Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No