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2026 Week 13 · Conference game

Toledo at Ohio

Thursday, November 26, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST

Peden Stadium

Toledo
Mid-American
Record
0-0
Rating
6.0
National rank
48
Proj. wins
8.7
Playoff prob.
0%
Ohio
Mid-American
Record
0-0
Rating
-4.0
National rank
84
Proj. wins
6.7
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Toledo
73%
Ohio
27%
Ohio 90% CI: 21% – 35% Δ rating 10.0

Toledo is the model's favorite at 73%. Ohio has a 27% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for Ohio — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Toledo offense
40 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Ohio offense
23 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Thursday, November 26, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Venue
Peden Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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