2026 Week 10 · Conference game
Toledo at Sacramento State
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Hornet Stadium
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 6.0
- National rank
- 48
- Proj. wins
- 8.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Sacramento State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- —
- National rank
- —
- Proj. wins
- 8.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Toledo
50%
Sacramento State
50%
Sacramento State 90% CI: 50% – 50% Δ rating 6.0
Sacramento State is the model's favorite at 50%. Toledo has a 50% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Sacramento State.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Toledo offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Sacramento State offense
19 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
- Venue
- Hornet Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No