2026 Week 10 · Conference game
Toledo at Sacramento State
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Hornet Stadium
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -5.4
- National rank
- 87
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Sacramento State
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -20.9
- National rank
- 133
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Toledo
84%
Sacramento State
16%
Sacramento State 90% CI: 12% – 22% Δ rating 15.5
Toledo is the model's favorite at 84%. Sacramento State has a 16% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Sacramento State.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Toledo offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Sacramento State offense
19 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Hornet Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No