2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Toledo at Ball State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC
Scheumann Stadium
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -5.4
- National rank
- 87
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -24.3
- National rank
- 136
- Proj. wins
- 4.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Toledo
88%
Ball State
12%
Ball State 90% CI: 8% – 16% Δ rating 18.9
Toledo is the model's favorite at 88%. Ball State has a 12% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.8 rating points baked in for Ball State — venue-specific learned value (n=44 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Toledo offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Ball State offense
23 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Thunderstorm
Temperature
78°F
Precipitation
35%
Wind
13 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Scheumann Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No