Conference game
Massachusetts at Toledo
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
Massachusetts 16% Underdog
Toledo 84% Favorite
Toledo is the model's favorite at 84%. Massachusetts has a 16% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.8 rating points baked in for Toledo — venue-specific night-game value (n=48 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Massachusetts offense
27 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Toledo offense
Higher fit 44 / 100 Style-neutral matchup