2026 Week 11 · Conference game
Massachusetts at Toledo
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Glass Bowl
Massachusetts
Mid-American
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- -19.9
- National rank
- 131
- Proj. wins
- 9.0
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -5.4
- National rank
- 87
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Massachusetts
12%
Toledo
88%
Toledo 90% CI: 84% – 91% Δ rating 14.5
Toledo is the model's favorite at 88%. Massachusetts has a 12% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Toledo — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Massachusetts offense
27 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Toledo offense
44 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Glass Bowl
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No