Minutemen · Mid-American
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
3%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
26 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -0.9 rating drop and a -3.8pp shift in playoff probability if Massachusetts loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Massachusetts sits at 1–0 after a stunning 37–21 road win at Rutgers in Week 1, though GIE's rating has held flat at –32.9, keeping them ranked 138th. The model isn't sold on the upset—a red-zone TD rate of just 13% suggests the Minutemen…
Massachusetts jumped 53 ELO points after beating Rutgers 37-21. That's a bigger single-week swing than most FBS teams see in a season. The model now gives them a 2.8-win expectation—meaningful for a program that's spent years in the 1-2…
Massachusetts has climbed 53 rating points in a single week — a swing that corresponds to the model's assessment of a team that just beat Rutgers on the road, 37-21.
Massachusetts jumped 53 ELO points after beating Rutgers 37-21. That's the largest single-week spike for a FCS program in this dataset. The model now projects them for 2.8 wins. Still not bowl-eligible territory, but the gap between…
Massachusetts has risen 53 Elo points in a single week—a swing that moves the team from a 1042 rating into the 1095 range. That's a meaningful recalibration, one that demands explanation before narrative.
Massachusetts sits at 0–12 after a 45–14 loss to Bowling Green in Week 14, holding a rating of –36.6 and ranking 136th in GIE. The blowout defeat underscored the depth of the Minutemen's offensive and defensive struggles this season. With…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
