2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Massachusetts at Sacramento State
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Hornet Stadium
Massachusetts
Mid-American
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- -19.9
- National rank
- 131
- Proj. wins
- 9.0
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
Sacramento State
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -20.9
- National rank
- 133
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Massachusetts
45%
Sacramento State
55%
Sacramento State 90% CI: 45% – 64% Δ rating 1.0
Sacramento State is the model's favorite at 55%. Massachusetts has a 45% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Sacramento State.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Massachusetts offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Sacramento State offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
62°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
10 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Hornet Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No