2026 Week 10 · Conference game
Ball State at Massachusetts
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -23.0
- National rank
- 132
- Proj. wins
- 2.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Massachusetts
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -36.6
- National rank
- 136
- Proj. wins
- 1.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ball State
81%
Massachusetts
19%
Massachusetts 90% CI: 14% – 25% Δ rating 13.6
Ball State is the model's favorite at 81%. Massachusetts has a 19% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.8 rating points baked in for Massachusetts — venue-specific learned value (n=38 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Massachusetts offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No