San Diego State at Toledo
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 12:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Diego State | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
 Toledo Winner | 7 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 41 |
GIE pre-game call: Toledo at 83%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
San Diego State 17% Underdog
Toledo 83% Favorite
Toledo is the model's favorite at 83%. San Diego State has a 17% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.7 rating points baked in for Toledo — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.