2026 Week 4
San Diego State at Toledo
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Glass Bowl
San Diego State
Pac-12
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -2.5
- National rank
- 78
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -5.4
- National rank
- 87
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
San Diego State
54%
Toledo
46%
Toledo 90% CI: 37% – 55% Δ rating 2.9
San Diego State is the model's favorite at 54%. Toledo has a 46% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Toledo — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
San Diego State offense
22 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Toledo offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Mainly clear
Temperature
70°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
8 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Glass Bowl
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No