Aztecs · Pac-12
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs SP+ expected · n=47
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
1%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.
GIE projects a -2.1 rating drop and a -8.5pp shift in playoff probability if San Diego State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
San Diego State sits at No. 43 overall with a 9–4 record and a GIE rating of 6.7. The Aztecs took a loss to New Mexico last week, falling 23–17 on the road in Week 14—a result that underscores the tightness of the Pac-12 middle tier. That…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
