2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Fresno State at San Diego State
Friday, October 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Snapdragon Stadium
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.8
- National rank
- 66
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
San Diego State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 6.7
- National rank
- 43
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Fresno State
30%
San Diego State
70%
San Diego State 90% CI: 61% – 77% Δ rating 4.9
San Diego State is the model's favorite at 70%. Fresno State has a 30% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.7 rating points baked in for San Diego State — venue-specific learned value (n=22 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Fresno State offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
San Diego State offense
31 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Snapdragon Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No