2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Fresno State at San Diego State
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
Snapdragon Stadium
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -0.4
- National rank
- 71
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
San Diego State
Pac-12
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -2.5
- National rank
- 78
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Fresno State
51%
San Diego State
49%
San Diego State 90% CI: 40% – 58% Δ rating 2.1
Fresno State is the model's favorite at 51%. San Diego State has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.7 rating points baked in for San Diego State — venue-specific learned value (n=22 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Fresno State offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
San Diego State offense
31 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Snapdragon Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No