2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Texas State at San Diego State
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
Snapdragon Stadium
Texas State
Pac-12
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -5.9
- National rank
- 91
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
San Diego State
Pac-12
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -2.5
- National rank
- 78
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Texas State
35%
San Diego State
65%
San Diego State 90% CI: 57% – 73% Δ rating 3.4
San Diego State is the model's favorite at 65%. Texas State has a 35% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.7 rating points baked in for San Diego State — venue-specific learned value (n=22 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Texas State offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
San Diego State offense
33 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
75°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
2 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Snapdragon Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No