2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Texas State at San Diego State
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
Snapdragon Stadium
Texas State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 2.3
- National rank
- 65
- Proj. wins
- 5.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
San Diego State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 6.7
- National rank
- 43
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Texas State
32%
San Diego State
68%
San Diego State 90% CI: 60% – 76% Δ rating 4.4
San Diego State is the model's favorite at 68%. Texas State has a 32% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.7 rating points baked in for San Diego State — venue-specific learned value (n=22 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Texas State offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
San Diego State offense
33 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Snapdragon Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No