2026 Week 6
Ball State at Northwestern
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Ryan Field
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -24.3
- National rank
- 136
- Proj. wins
- 4.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Northwestern
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-0
- Rating
- 7.7
- National rank
- 44
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 11%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ball State
1%
Northwestern
99%
Northwestern 90% CI: 98% – 99% Δ rating 32.0
Northwestern is the model's favorite at 99%. Ball State has a 1% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Northwestern.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Northwestern offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Partly cloudy
Temperature
51°F
Precipitation
6%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Ryan Field
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No