2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Ball State at Kent State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Dix Stadium
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -24.3
- National rank
- 136
- Proj. wins
- 4.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Kent State
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -24.8
- National rank
- 137
- Proj. wins
- 5.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ball State
40%
Kent State
60%
Kent State 90% CI: 51% – 69% Δ rating 0.5
Kent State is the model's favorite at 60%. Ball State has a 40% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for Kent State — venue-specific learned value (n=38 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Kent State offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
70°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
11 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Dix Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No