2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Ball State at Kent State
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Dix Stadium
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -23.0
- National rank
- 132
- Proj. wins
- 2.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Kent State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -19.3
- National rank
- 130
- Proj. wins
- 3.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ball State
28%
Kent State
72%
Kent State 90% CI: 64% – 79% Δ rating 3.7
Kent State is the model's favorite at 72%. Ball State has a 28% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for Kent State — venue-specific learned value (n=38 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Kent State offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Dix Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No