2026 Week 12 · Conference game
Ball State at Ohio
Monday, November 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Peden Stadium
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -23.0
- National rank
- 132
- Proj. wins
- 2.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Ohio
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -4.0
- National rank
- 84
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ball State
7%
Ohio
93%
Ohio 90% CI: 91% – 95% Δ rating 19.0
Ohio is the model's favorite at 93%. Ball State has a 7% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for Ohio — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Ohio offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Monday, November 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
- Venue
- Peden Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No