2026 Week 12 · Conference game
Ball State at Ohio
Wednesday, November 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Peden Stadium
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -24.3
- National rank
- 136
- Proj. wins
- 4.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Ohio
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -12.7
- National rank
- 114
- Proj. wins
- 5.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ball State
15%
Ohio
85%
Ohio 90% CI: 79% – 89% Δ rating 11.6
Ohio is the model's favorite at 85%. Ball State has a 15% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for Ohio — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Ohio offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, November 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Peden Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No