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2026 Week 12 · Conference game

Ball State at Ohio

Monday, November 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST

Peden Stadium

Ball State
Mid-American
Record
0-0
Rating
-23.0
National rank
132
Proj. wins
2.9
Playoff prob.
0%
Ohio
Mid-American
Record
0-0
Rating
-4.0
National rank
84
Proj. wins
6.7
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Ball State
7%
Ohio
93%
Ohio 90% CI: 91% – 95% Δ rating 19.0

Ohio is the model's favorite at 93%. Ball State has a 7% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for Ohio — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Ball State offense
38 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Ohio offense
39 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Monday, November 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Venue
Peden Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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