Ball State: 2026 Week 12 recap

Ball State remains firmly in the basement of the MAC at 130th overall with a 3–6 record, though GIE nudged the Cardinals up 0.6 rating points to −19.5 this week. That modest lift followed a heartbreaking one-point loss to Massachusetts—a game that underscored the team's offensive struggles. A red-zone touchdown rate of just 13% tells the story: Ball State is leaving points on the field in critical moments, compounded by a third-down conversion rate of 30% that keeps drives stalled. With a 33% fourth-down aggression rate and late-game leverage performance trailing elsewhere, the Cardinals lack both efficiency and execution when games tighten. Buffalo visits this week with Ball State facing an uphill climb to improve on 3.8 expected wins for the season.