2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Illinois at Ohio State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Ohio Stadium
Illinois
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 11.1
- National rank
- 33
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
Ohio State
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 29.7
- National rank
- 1
- Proj. wins
- 6.6
- Playoff prob.
- 14%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Illinois
5%
Ohio State
95%
Ohio State 90% CI: 93% – 96% Δ rating 18.6
Ohio State is the model's favorite at 95%. Illinois has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.8 rating points baked in for Ohio State — venue-specific learned value (n=66 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Illinois offense
25 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Ohio State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
68°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
8 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Ohio Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No