Ohio State: 2026 Week 11 recap

Ohio State holds the top rating at 28.6, but the 6-2 record and recent loss to USC (30-18 in Week 9) have complicated the path forward. The Buckeyes haven't moved in GIE's assessment week-to-week, suggesting the model sees last week's result as confirmatory rather than shocking—and that red-zone TD rate of 14% hints at why: they're leaving points on the field in critical moments. With a playoff probability sitting at 31%, Ohio State needs to string together wins, starting with a home matchup against Oregon this week. Late-game execution (4.66 leverage performance) has been a relative strength, but third-down efficiency at 48% shows there's room to manufacture more drives and finish them.