USC

Trojans · Big Ten

Head coach Lincoln Riley Year 5 with USC

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

7.7

Expected wins

8-4

Proj record

5 to 10

Win range (90%)

#19 (8–36)

Final rank (90%)

17%

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

17%

Baseline projection.

vs Ohio State

Home · Oct 31
at Penn State

Away · Oct 10
vs Oregon

Home · Sep 26
vs Washington

Home · Oct 3
at Rutgers

Away · Sep 19

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

66 score

Quarterback 96% (2/5 )
Offensive line 68% (13/19 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 42% (14/33 )
Front 7 (DL/LB) 62% (14/28 )
Secondary 43% (12/21 )
Special teams 32% (5/8 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

-0.4 rating

14 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Terrell Anderson WR ← NC State 115 impact
Zuriah Fisher DE ← Penn State 75 impact
Alex VanSumeren DT ← Michigan State 72 impact
Deven Bryant LB ← Washington 59 impact
Jontez Williams CB ← Iowa State 47 impact
Ethan Brougham DE ← Rice 15 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 49.7% 98th — elite
Red-zone TD rate 17.6% 76th — strong
4th-down aggression 41.3% 72th — strong
Late & close 5.6 yds/play 66th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about USC will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.