USC

Trojans · Big Ten

Head coach Lincoln Riley Year 4 with USC

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs SP+ expected · n=59

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

7.7

Expected wins

8-4

Proj record

5 to 10

Win range (90%)

#19 (8–36)

Final rank (90%)

18%

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

18%

Baseline projection.

vs Ohio State

Home · Oct 31
at Penn State

Away · Oct 10
vs Oregon

Home · Sep 26
vs Washington

Home · Oct 3
at Rutgers

Away · Sep 19

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

55 PCI

Quarterback 50% (3/6 players)
Offensive line 65% (11/17 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 62% (16/26 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 54% (15/28 players)
Secondary 47% (9/19 players)
Special teams 40% (4/10 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 49.7% 98th — elite
Red-zone TD rate 17.6% 76th — strong
4th-down aggression 41.3% 72th — strong
Late & close 5.6 yds/play 66th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about USC will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.