2026 Week 1
Fresno State at USC
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.8
- National rank
- 66
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
USC
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 16.9
- National rank
- 16
- Proj. wins
- 7.7
- Playoff prob.
- 17%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Fresno State
10%
USC
90%
USC 90% CI: 86% – 93% Δ rating 15.1
USC is the model's favorite at 90%. Fresno State has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for USC — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Fresno State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
USC offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No