Bulldogs · Pac-12
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
5%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
12 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 0.3 rating drop and a 1.4pp shift in playoff probability if Fresno State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Fresno State remains ranked 73rd by GIE after absorbing a 39–0 road loss to USC in Week 1—a result that left the rating unchanged at –1.4, reflecting pre-game expectations in a matchup between the Pac-12's elite and a rebuilding Group of…
Fresno State sits at 9–4 with a 1.8 rating and rank 66 overall after dismantling San José State 41–14 in Week 14. The Bulldogs have built a solid mid-tier profile through late November, mixing wins against weaker competition with enough…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
