2026 Week 11 · Conference game
Fresno State at Texas State
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -0.4
- National rank
- 71
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
Texas State
Pac-12
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -5.9
- National rank
- 91
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Fresno State
64%
Texas State
36%
Texas State 90% CI: 28% – 46% Δ rating 5.5
Fresno State is the model's favorite at 64%. Texas State has a 36% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.1 rating points baked in for Texas State — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Fresno State offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Texas State offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Bobcat Stadium (TX)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No