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2026 Week 2

Sacramento State at Fresno State

Friday, September 11, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Valley Children's Stadium

Sacramento State
Mid-American
Record
0-0
Rating
National rank
Proj. wins
8.2
Playoff prob.
0%
Fresno State
Pac-12
Record
0-0
Rating
1.8
National rank
66
Proj. wins
6.2
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Sacramento State
50%
Fresno State
50%
Fresno State 90% CI: 50% – 50% Δ rating 1.8

Fresno State is the model's favorite at 50%. Sacramento State has a 50% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Fresno State — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Sacramento State offense
30 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Fresno State offense
37 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, September 11, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Valley Children's Stadium
Conference game
No
Neutral site
No

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