2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Fresno State at Washington State
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:30 AM UTC
Gesa Field
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -0.4
- National rank
- 71
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
Washington State
Pac-12
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -5.6
- National rank
- 88
- Proj. wins
- 4.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Fresno State
48%
Washington State
52%
Washington State 90% CI: 42% – 61% Δ rating 5.2
Washington State is the model's favorite at 52%. Fresno State has a 48% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.8 rating points baked in for Washington State — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Fresno State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Washington State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
47°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Gesa Field
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No