2026 Week 4
Rice at Fresno State
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Valley Children's Stadium
Rice
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -14.8
- National rank
- 120
- Proj. wins
- 2.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.8
- National rank
- 66
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Rice
9%
Fresno State
91%
Fresno State 90% CI: 88% – 94% Δ rating 16.6
Fresno State is the model's favorite at 91%. Rice has a 9% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Fresno State — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Rice offense
30 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Fresno State offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Valley Children's Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No