2026 Week 4
Rice at Fresno State
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 2:00 AM UTC
Valley Children's Stadium
Rice
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -14.9
- National rank
- 116
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -0.4
- National rank
- 71
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Rice
11%
Fresno State
89%
Fresno State 90% CI: 85% – 92% Δ rating 14.5
Fresno State is the model's favorite at 89%. Rice has a 11% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Fresno State — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Rice offense
30 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Fresno State offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
69°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 2:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Valley Children's Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No