Owls · American Athletic
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
23 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -3.0 rating drop and a -11.8pp shift in playoff probability if Rice loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Rice sits at 120th in GIE ratings after a dominant 31–3 win over Houston Christian in Week 1, though the rating held steady heading into this week—a signal the model views that result within expected parameters for the Owls' talent level.…
Rice sits at 5–8 after a brutal 52–3 road loss to South Florida in Week 14, a result that crystallized the Owls' offensive struggles down the stretch. The 49-point margin underscores how far the gap has widened between Rice and the AAC's…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
