2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Tulsa at Rice
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Rice Stadium
Tulsa
American Athletic
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- -1.2
- National rank
- 72
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
Rice
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -14.9
- National rank
- 116
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Tulsa
76%
Rice
24%
Rice 90% CI: 17% – 31% Δ rating 13.7
Tulsa is the model's favorite at 76%. Rice has a 24% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for Rice — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Tulsa offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Rice offense
30 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Rice Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No