Tulsa
Golden Hurricane · American Athletic
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
-
vs Oklahoma StateHome · Sep 5 -
at Sam HoustonAway · Sep 12 - vs East Texas A&MHome · Sep 20
-
vs ArmyHome · Oct 24
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 83% (3/4 )
- Offensive line 100% (18/18 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 45% (21/27 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 58% (28/32 )
- Secondary 100% (17/17 )
- Special teams 12% (6/8 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
26 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Trequan Jones RB ← Old Dominion 113 impact
- David Wells Jr. WR ← Oregon State 92 impact
- Thomas Davis DL ← App State 92 impact
- Devin Hightower LB ← UAB 90 impact
- DJ McKinney RB ← New Mexico 88 impact
- Javon Ross WR ← Bethune-Cookman 62 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 0.7 rating drop and a 2.6pp shift in playoff probability if Tulsa loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 36.1% 44th — below avg
- Red-zone TD rate 15.6% 60th — average
- 4th-down aggression 46.5% 89th — strong
- Late & close 5.7 yds/play 67th — average
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5
vsOklahoma StateBig 1272%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12
atSam HoustonConference USA87%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 20vsEast Texas A&M—
- Wk 4Sep 27
atArkansasSEC10%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 2
vsNorth TexasAmerican Athletic7%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
atNavyAmerican Athletic9%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
atRiceAmerican Athletic57%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
vsArmyAmerican Athletic26%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atTulaneAmerican Athletic9%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsFlorida AtlanticAmerican Athletic54%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
vsCharlotteAmerican Athletic92%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
atUTSAAmerican Athletic12%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.